Applications of Capture-Recapture Methods ARCH06V40N1_I

Applications of capture-recapture procedures go back to at least 1896, to the work of Petersen [1896], who was interested in the size of fish populations. Another early paper by Lincoln [1930] was concerned with waterfowl. The method gets its name from such applications concerned with estimating the number of fish in a pond, or more generally, estimating the population size of various species in the wild. Another classic paper, by Sekar and Deming [1949] was concerned with estimating birth and death rates in an area near Calcutta, India. Capture-recapture procedures have more recent application to (1) estimating the size of the undercount in censuses and (2) estimating the number of duplicate records on a list or a database. Other possible applications include (1) estimating the number of drug addicts in the United States and (2) estimating the number of children in Massachusetts possessing a specific congenital abnormality. Finally, Ball et al. [1999] have used capture-recapture methods to estimate the number of people killed in Kosovo. We review the general methodology first and then describe a few of these applications. Methods known as capture-recapture procedures have applications to a number of the problems. The simplest version of this methodology, also known as dual systems estimation, involves two separately compiled, but incomplete, lists of the members of a population. With three or more such lists, the methodology is called multiple systems estimation. Applications of capture-recapture procedures go back to at least 1896, to the work of Petersen [1896] who was interested in the size of fish populations. Another early paper by Lincoln [1930] was concerned with waterfowl. The method gets its name from such applications concerned with estimating the number of fish in a pond, or more generally, estimating the population size of various species in the wild. Scheuren [2004] is a precursor of this work. For example, we could take a sample of fish in a pond and tag each of the fish so selected. A day later, we could take a second sample of fish from the pond, and count the number of fish in this second sample that had been tagged the day before. Then, using the methods of this section, we could estimate the total number of fish in the pond. Another classic paper, by Sekar and Deming [1949] was concerned with estimating birth and death rates in an area near Calcutta, India. Capture-recapture procedures also have application …